A new study, published in the journal PLoS Computational Biology, presents a mathematical behaviour-incidence model based on game theory and social learning which can predict the course of vaccine scares in a population, including when they will peak and how long they will last. One of the professors, Dr Chris Bauch, behind the development of the model explains in an interview with Decoded Science: “It captures how individuals learn their behaviour from others, how they take into account the amount of disease currently circulating in the population, and how the disease itself spreads in the population and responds to vaccine programs”.
Models like this could play an important role in the planning of public health campaigns targeting immunization in the future.
For more information about the model, read this article or have a look at the study.
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